Airline passenger demand to see double-digit growth

AIRLINE passenger demand was expected to rise more than 30% in the next four years, the latest report by the International Air Transport Association (Iata) revealed on Tuesday.The Iata Airline Industry Forecast 2013 to 2017 showed that, by 2017, there would be a total of 3.91-billion passengers – a 930-million passenger rise on the 2.98-billion carried in 2012.

The number of international airline passengers was expected to increase 25% from 1.2-billion in 2012 to 1.5-billion in 2017, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%, while domestic passenger numbers were expected to rise from 1.82-billion in 2012 to 2.46-billion by 2017, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% over the four-year period.

“The emerging economies of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will see the strongest international passenger growth with a CAGR of 6.3% and 5.7%, followed by Africa and Latin America with a CAGR of 5.3% and 4.5%,” the report revealed.

Uzbekistan, with a 10.3% CAGR, displaced Kazakhstan, at 9% CAGR, as the fastest-growing market for international passenger traffic. The top-ten fastest-growing international traffic markets included Russia, Turkey, Oman, China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan and Pakistan.

Turkey, the second-fastest growing domestic market, had also featured in the top-ten largest domestic markets, with 26.3-million domestic passengers and the addition of 17.2-million more at a CAGR of 10.6% over the forecast period.

However, routes within or connected to China would be the largest drivers of growth, accounting for 30% of new passengers during the forecast period, the report pointed out.

Of the anticipated 227.4-million additional passengers for China during the forecast period, 195-million would be domestic and 32.4-million would be international.

China, which registered as the second-largest single market for domestic passengers, would boast 487.9-million domestic passengers by 2017, growing at a CAGR of 10.2%.

The Asia-Pacific region, including China, was expected to add around 300-million additional passengers by the end of the current forecast period. Of these, about 225-million, or 75%, were expected to be domestic passengers.

Of the top-ten fastest-growing countries by domestic passengers, the bottom five were in Latin America, namely Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Mexico and Ecuador.

With 677.8-million domestic passengers in 2017, the US continued to be the largest single market for domestic passengers, although the mature market would only grow at a CAGR of 2.2%, adding 70-million passengers over the forecast period. The nation’s international market was expected to record a CAGR of 3.5% with the addition of 28.2-million international passengers, reaching 177.5-million by 2017.

“Brazil will firmly establish itself as the third-largest domestic market after the US and China, with 122.4-million passengers in 2017, an increase of 32-million passengers from the 90-million in 2012,” Iata said in the report.